The World Bank expects Ukrainian GDP to increase by 6.5% in 2025, the highest anticipated growth rate in Europe. In a newly released January 2024 Global Economic Prospects overview, World Bank analysts have also upwardly revised their earlier estimate for Ukrainian GDP growth in 2023 from 2% to 4.8%.
This optimistic outlook mirrors a similarly upbeat recent IMF assessment of Ukraine’s economic progress, which upgraded the country’s GDP forecast for 2023 to 4.5% while noting “signs of stabilization” and “a stronger-than-expected economic recovery in 2023.”
The full-scale Russian invasion had a devastating impact on the Ukrainian economy, with widespread destruction, massive displacement of the civilian population, and a naval blockade of the country’s Black Sea ports contributing to an annual GDP decline of 29.1% in 2022.
The past year witnessed indications of recovery throughout the Ukrainian economy, with businesses gradually overcoming logistical challenges and adapting to wartime conditions. Key developments included Ukraine’s success in breaking the Russian navy’s Black Sea blockade, which allowed the country to reopen merchant shipping corridors and renew maritime exports to global markets.
With no end in sight to Russia’s invasion, World Bank officials acknowledge that the outlook for Ukraine remains “highly uncertain.” Their strong growth expectation for 2025 is based a “partial resolution of uncertainty,” which would facilitate the further resumption of exports and a gradual increase in reconstruction.