Industry experts estimate that Ukraine’s campaign of long-range drone strikes on Russia’s energy industry has already succeeded in knocking out between 600,000 and 900,000 barrels of Russia’s daily oil-refining capacity, Bloomberg reports.
Speaking at a conference in Houston on March 18, Gunvor Group CEO Torbjörn Törnqvist estimated the recent wave of Ukrainian drone attacks had reduced Russian capacity by approximately 600,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, JPMorgan Chase analysts report that Ukraine’s drone strikes have taken around 900,000 barrels of daily Russian oil-refining capacity offline and predict that it could be “several weeks, if not months” until capacity is fully restored.
Ukraine launched a bombing campaign against Russia’s oil and gas industry in January 2024 using domestically produced long-range drones. According to Kyiv officials, these air strikes are designed to starve the Russian invasion force inside Ukraine of fuel while also undermining the economic foundations of Vladimir Putin’s war machine. On March 1, Russia imposed a six-month ban on gasoline exports in a move widely linked to Ukraine’s drone attacks.
Since the beginning of 2024, Ukraine has successfully targeted more than a dozen Russian refineries, leading to production halts and damage to critical infrastructure. With the majority of Russia’s air defense systems currently deployed in Ukraine, the Kremlin is struggling to defend against Ukraine’s drone attacks.