Vladimir Putin resumed his nuclear saber-rattling in late March with the announcement that he plans to place nuclear weapons in neighboring Belarus. This largely symbolic move was clearly designed to intimidate Western leaders and deter them from continuing to arm Ukraine. In reality, however, it merely serves to highlight Russia\u2019s growing desperation and the Kremlin\u2019s lack of alternative options as the attempted conquest of Ukraine continues to unravel.<\/p>\n
Putin has repeatedly resorted to nuclear blackmail since embarking on the full-scale invasion of Ukraine just over thirteen months ago. During the first few days of the invasion, the Russian dictator signaled his readiness to engage in nuclear intimidation by very publicly placing his country\u2019s nuclear forces on \u201cspecial alert.\u201d This was widely interpreted as an attempt to discourage any Western intervention.<\/p>\n
Further thinly-veiled nuclear threats came in September 2022 as Putin sought to escalate his faltering invasion. Following a string of battlefield defeats and embarrassing retreats, he announced his country\u2019s first mobilization since World War II before boasting of Russia\u2019s unrivaled \u201cweapons of destruction\u201d and vowing to \u201cuse all the means at our disposal\u201d to defend the country. \u201cI am not bluffing,\u201d Putin warned.<\/p>\n
It is not difficult to imagine why Putin is now once again indulging in nuclear saber-rattling. In recent months, military aid to Ukraine has expanded to new levels and crossed multiple Russian red lines in the process. Western countries have agreed to supply Kyiv with state-of-the-art air defense systems, modern battle tanks, and jet fighters. Tellingly, Putin framed his plans for nuclear weapons in Belarus as a response to Britain\u2019s decision to provide Ukraine with anti-tank ammunition that contains depleted uranium.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Russia\u2019s military fortunes in Ukraine have continued to deteriorate. The six-month campaign to bomb Ukraine into submission by targeting the country\u2019s civilian infrastructure has ended in failure. Along the front lines in southern and eastern Ukraine, a much-hyped Russian offensive has been underway since early 2023 but has failed to make significant progress while suffering disastrous losses. This is leading to the rapid demoralization of Putin\u2019s army in Ukraine, with video appeals regularly posted to social media featuring groups of recently mobilized Russian soldiers complaining of suicidal tactics and high death tolls.<\/p>\n
There is also little cause for Russian optimism on the international front, where initial expectations of a weakening in Western support for Ukraine are rapidly evaporating. Indeed, during the early months of 2023, the democratic world\u2019s commitment to Ukraine has looked stronger than ever. In February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was given a hero\u2019s welcome during a brief trip to London, Paris, and Brussels. Weeks later, US President Joe Biden arrived in Kyiv to emphasize his resolve to stand with Ukraine.<\/p>\n
There was more bad news for Russia in mid-March, when the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for Putin\u2019s arrest on war crimes charges related to the mass abduction of Ukrainian children. While there is no immediate danger of the Russian ruler ending up in court, the indictment is a further humiliation that underlines Putin\u2019s pariah status while weakening his position both at home and abroad.<\/p>\n
Even\u00a0Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s Moscow visit failed to lift the gloom. The much-hyped March summit produced few concrete gains for Putin while confirming his position as junior partner in what is an increasingly unequal bilateral relationship. Interestingly, one of the few security-related outcomes of the visit was a joint statement calling on all nuclear powers to refrain from deploying nuclear weapons beyond their national borders. Putin\u2019s subsequent decision to place nukes in Belarus may well be an indication of his frustration over China\u2019s obvious reluctance to back Russia more forcefully.<\/p>\n
It remains far from clear whether Russia is capable of regaining the military initiative in Ukraine via conventional means. Kremlin officials have recently begun speaking of massive increases in military production, while rumors persist of additional mobilization waves to bolster the depleted ranks of Russia\u2019s invasion force. However, this optimism is at odds with the realities on the ground in Ukraine, with the UK Ministry of Defense recently reporting that Russia is now deploying tanks and armored vehicles from the 1950s and 1960s \u201cto make up for previous losses.\u201d With limited access to sanctioned Western technologies, many analysts question the offensive potential of what will be a largely conscript Russian army of poorly motivated troops with limited training and outdated equipment.<\/p>\n
This grim outlook helps to explain why Putin is playing the nuclear card. His nuclear threats may ring hollow, but they are too serious to be disregarded completely and he knows it. At the same time, the international community cannot afford to let Putin\u2019s intimidation tactics succeed. If nuclear blackmail pays off for Putin in Ukraine and allows him to snatch a victory of sorts from the jaws of defeat, it will become a normalized element of international relations with devastating consequences for global security. Countries around the world will scramble to acquire nuclear arsenals of their own in order to avoid the fate of Ukraine.<\/p>\n
The response to Putin\u2019s latest bout of nuclear saber-rattling was encouraging, with US, EU, and NATO officials united in their condemnation. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell branded it \u201can irresponsible escalation and threat to European security,\u201d while Germany\u2019s Foreign Ministry accused Russia of \u201canother attempt at nuclear intimidation.\u201d Perhaps the most fitting commentary came from Kyiv, with Presidential Advisor Mykhailo Podolyak claiming Putin\u2019s comments demonstrate that he fears defeat in Ukraine and has nothing to offer other than scare tactics.<\/p>\n
We are likely to see such scare tactics increasingly in the coming months. With the Ukrainian military currently preparing to launch what promises to be their largest offensive of the war, Russia\u2019s position could worsen significantly as we approach summer 2023. If he finds himself faced with the prospect of decisive military defeat, Putin will almost certainly escalate his nuclear blackmail to new levels of danger. At that point, the international community must unite to prevent Russia from dragging the world into catastrophe.<\/p>\n