Ukrainian long-range drone strikes have knocked out around 10% of Russia’s oil refining capacity since the start of 2025, according to new data from Reuters. Calculations by Reuters analysts based on oil industry trade figures covering the period from January to early February 2025 indicate that Ukraine’s drone offensive has disabled approximately one-tenth of Russia’s refining capacity. Coupled with the impact of new United States sanctions against the Kremlin’s shadow fleet of oil tankers, this is expected to leave Moscow with no choice but to slow oil production in the coming months.
The Kremlin has not commented on the impact of Ukraine’s escalating strikes, but open source data and media reports indicate significant damage to at least eight Russian refineries along with a number of oil depots and key logistical points such as pumping stations and ports used for oil and gas exports. The wide range of facilities targeted suggests that Ukraine aims to methodically disrupt Russia’s economically vital but vulnerable oil and gas exports.
In order to strike targets deep inside Russia, Ukraine has prioritized the domestic production of long-range drones and missiles. Thanks to Ukraine’s innovative defense tech sector and the country’s strong aerospace legacy inherited from the Soviet era, progress has been relatively rapid. In late 2024, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy showcased a number of new domestically produced drones and missiles with expanded ranges and payloads.
Ukrainian officials have stated that they intend to manufacture 30,000 long-range drones and 3000 missiles during the current year. Some of Kyiv’s Western partners also appear to recognize the strategic importance of Ukraine’s growing long-range arsenal, and are providing financing for production along with technical support.
In the absence of credible NATO-style security guarantees, Ukrainian leaders believe one of the few reliable deterrents against further Russian aggression would be the proven ability to strike back powerfully at targets inside Russia. Zelenskyy’s “victory plan,” which he presented to Western partners in the final months of 2024, included a call for the supply of long-range missiles as part of a “non-nuclear deterrence package” designed to prevent a fresh Russian invasion. In this year’s traditional New Year address, the Ukrainian leader referenced his country’s numerous new missile models, calling them Ukraine’s “arguments for a just peace.”
There is currently little to suggest Putin is interested in ending his invasion of Ukraine, of course. On the contrary, he looks to be more confident then ever of eventual victory and appears unwilling to compromise on his original war aim of extinguishing Ukrainian statehood. However, Kyiv officials hope that by continuing to expand their current bombing campaign against Russia’s energy industry, they can weaken Putin’s ability to wage war and force the Kremlin dictator to rethink.