Following Donald Trump’s presidential election win, the United States now has a unique opportunity to bring peace to Ukraine and play an enhanced role in restoring the Western-led global system of deterrence and security that has fueled decades of growing prosperity around the world. The war unleashed by Russia in February 2022 has evolved into the bloodiest European conflict since World War II. It began as a result of Russian aggression, but has raged for so long primarily due to Western weakness.
During the first year of the full-scale Russian invasion, a combination of Western-supplied weapons and Ukrainian courage led to a series of remarkable military successes including the defense of Kyiv, the liberation of Kherson, and a counteroffensive that allowed Ukraine to take back a great deal of territory in the east. However, the Biden administration then became overcautious and was slow to adjust its support for Ukraine as Russia dug in and adapted to the realities of modern warfare. Crucially, Biden’s policy of avoiding escalation at all costs repeatedly left Ukraine short of vital weapons and ammunition. With the US Congress also deadlocked for an extended period over further military aid, the slow pace of American support caused a great deal of frustration in Kyiv and created tensions between the US and some NATO allies.
Thanks in part to insufficient Western backing, Ukraine is currently locked in a grinding WWI-style war of attrition, with Russia benefiting from overwhelming advantages in terms of both manpower and firepower. Nevertheless, Putin’s army has only been able to achieve relatively minor gains during 2024 while suffering unsustainable casualties. The Russian economy is also facing mounting challenges including sanctions pressures, record defense spending, rising inflation, labor shortages, and a weakening ruble. And while Russia still produces more armaments than Europe, the West is closing the gap. Meanwhile, Ukraine now has Europe’s strongest land army, a rapidly expanding domestic defense industry, and is leading the world in drone production. In other words, Russia’s position may be weaker than it at first appears, while Ukraine is better placed than many realize.
The Trump administration enters office with the chance to reestablish the US’s global leadership and restore international confidence in the West. Securing a meaningful peace deal between Russia and Ukraine would communicate geopolitical strength during a generational moment in global politics. Significantly, Trump has taken personal responsibility for the outcome of the war in Ukraine. He is certainly tenacious when it comes to getting what he wants, as the 2024 election campaign demonstrated.
What happens next in Ukraine is likely to become a big part of Trump’s political legacy. He has explicitly stated that previous US foreign policy weakness emboldened Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin to attack Ukraine. Any chance for peace must therefore be rooted in a convincing display of American strength.
A realistic peace process needs to begin by improving the bargaining position of the collective West. This must go beyond short-term military aid commitments to Ukraine. Trump has already rightfully called on every NATO member countries to significantly increase defense spending. EU appeasement of Russia helped pave the way for the current war, so Brussels should be at the forefront of any international efforts to finance a solution.
It also makes sense to encourage the countries on NATO’s eastern edge to take a lead and provide the greatest amount of support, as they know the Russian menace best and have the most at risk should the Ukraine peace process falter. Most of all, Trump must convince the Kremlin that the West is resolute and willing to significantly increase its support for Ukraine if Russia refuses to join the push for peace.
After three years of war, millions of Ukrainians desire a just and long-lasting peace together with credible security guarantees. I’ve lived and worked in Ukraine for more than two decades and have traveled around the country on a regular basis since the start of the full-scale invasion. People in Kyiv and across Ukraine have repeatedly told me about the need for a viable peace to end the needless suffering. Despite sometimes contrary rhetoric from official Ukrainian channels, many Ukrainians are willing to find a path to peace, provided they can be assured that Russia will not return to continue the fight in five to ten years. If Trump can lead the way toward a sustainable peace that provides Ukraine with security and returns stability to Europe, he will secure his own place in history while revitalizing the wider Western world.